The used car market is always in motion, shifting with seasonal demand, consumer behavior, and economic forces. In a recent episode, Jasen Rice, CEO of Lotpop, broke down the latest market data and explained why bucket management—an inventory strategy some have called outdated—remains essential for dealers.
Rice makes one point clear: if you’re not carefully managing your age buckets, you risk falling behind as the market cools heading into the fall and winter. Let’s unpack the key insights.
Reading the Market: Shopper Trends Are Slowing
Rice pointed to Google Trends data tracking used car shopper activity over the last five years.
- Shopper activity consistently peaks in July and August, followed by a decline through the fall and into the holidays.
- In 2023, for example, activity fell nearly 8% from August to November. The same dip happened in 2022 and again in 2024.
- This year, trends are mirroring the same pattern. We’re already at a shopper index of 50—similar to last year—so a downturn is likely in the next 30 to 60 days.
The data also shows a correlation between shopper activity and dealer sales volume. When more people are shopping, volumes rise. When activity drops, sales fall sharply—by as much as 14–18% in a single month during past fall seasons.
For dealers, this means bracing for softer traffic and slower turn as the year winds down.
Don’t Be Fooled by “Positive” Headlines
It’s easy to get caught up in surface-level stats. For example:
- Wholesale values may be ticking up because dealers are buying aggressively to replace sold units.
- Average retail age might look better (dropping from 42 days to 38) because cars are moving faster during the summer uptick.
But as Rice warns, these numbers can create a “false positive.” Values rise when demand is hot, but once shopper traffic falls, inventory starts to age again. That 10-day-old car today can easily become your 60-day headache by November.
Why Bucket Management Still Matters
Some industry voices argue bucket management—grouping cars by age brackets (0–15, 16–30, 31–45 days, etc.)—is outdated. Rice disagrees.
Here’s why:
- Holding costs add up. Even a desirable “platinum” car racks up daily expenses. At $50/day, a unit held for 100 days costs you $5,000 in overhead—before depreciation.
- Depreciation is relentless. Cars lose value whether they’re fast-turning or niche, high-demand units.
- Aging units drag down the lot. If 30–40% of your inventory is over 45 days old, you’re sitting on a problem—especially when shopper activity drops.
Bucket management keeps you honest about where aging is creeping in. Once you know which buckets are heavy, you can dive deeper: identify which cars are worth holding, and which need pricing action, reconditioning, or wholesale exit.
A Smarter Way to Work Your Buckets
Rice suggests combining bucket management with smarter automotive intelligence:
- Start with the bucket. If your 31–45-day bucket has 20 units but you’re only selling five every two weeks, you’re on pace to underperform. That’s the red flag.
- Zero in on problem cars. Within that bucket, decide which units are “ripe bananas” you can hold, and which are “brown bananas” that need immediate attention.
- Layer in market and lot data. Look at things like equipment, mileage, lead volume, and segment saturation. A 2020 pickup with high miles, bench seats, and weak leads isn’t the same as a low-mileage SUV with strong online traffic.
- Act faster than your gut says. Rice recommends being 1–2% more aggressive on pricing now. If you think a car will sell at 98% of market, price it at 96%. This keeps you ahead of the curve instead of playing catch-up.
Key Takeaways for Dealers
- Expect a slowdown. Data shows fall will bring a consistent drop in shopper activity and sales volume.
- Don’t trust false positives. Low average retail age or rising wholesale values don’t tell the whole story.
- Buckets reveal problems early. Track your aging by segments and act before small issues turn into full-blown problems.
- Stay aggressive. Price 1–2% sharper than you think you need to in the current market to avoid being a week behind.
- Use intelligence, not just instinct. Combine age buckets with market data and lead management for smarter decisions.
Final Word
Bucket management isn’t about clinging to old ways. It’s about keeping a disciplined eye on aging so you can stay ahead of the slowdown. As Rice puts it, “Don’t get tied up in the idea that age doesn’t matter anymore. You’ll be welcoming an aging problem come September, October, and November.”
Dealers who stay proactive—pricing a step ahead, managing buckets diligently, and layering in smart data—will be better positioned to ride out seasonal slowdowns and protect their margins.
For those wanting deeper help, Lotpop’s LotWalk platform pairs inventory and lead management into one system, giving dealers the full picture of both lot health and lead activity.
